Trade between the United States and Canada is profoundly significant because both countries trade with each other the most. Any form of trade conflict would be equally damaging to both countries. A trade dispute in the form of a trade war between these two nations would lead to devastating economic consequences for the United States and ruin some other critical sectors, leading to severe unemployment and distressed economic growth.

When it comes to Canada, the United States will economically endure a decline if a trade war develops, particularly concerning production, energy, and agriculture. A substantial amount of agricultural products, such as grains, meat, and dairy, are imported by Canada from the US. If they choose to fight back, it will be less favorable for American farmers due to less favorable American imports. Similarly, the automobile and steel industries, which rely heavily on exports from the neighboring states, will experience shipping delays, increased production prices, and a loss of global market competitiveness.

Added trade restrictions and rising tariffs difficulty would put considerable economic pressure on businesses that depend on exports from Canada. There may be increased unemployment as companies will need staff layoffs. These small businesses would especially suffer as the economy dollars spent by Canadian consumers and vendors. An unfavorable change in economic conditions may lessen the consumer’s confidence, resulting in decreased expenditures and investments in the nation.

Wars fought by countries over trade result in inflation, making goods and services more expensive. If Canada tariffs on American products, US businesses stubbornly try to reclaim the losses by charging American consumers. Not only goods but also the materials needed to manufacture them will become costlier. The economy will undoubtedly face fueling inflation. Industries heavily affected would include the agriculture, automobile, and homeware sectors, worsening citizens’ financial situation.

This economic conflict is bound to tarnish America’s reputation as a go-to trade partner. Canada trades extensively with several countries, and it is logical to assume they will look for other agile, flexible partners. Economically, they’ll be able to strengthen ties with the European Union and China, not to mention Canada itself. As a result, American clout and trade will decline in North America. This ultimately can result in a diminished US export market for longer.

Although fighting trade disputes can sometimes be necessary to protect national interests, a prolonged trade war with Canada would be economically costly for the United States. The negative consequences could well outnumber potential benefits, from job losses and rising consumer costs to weakened trade relationships. While economic integration is the foundation of prosperity and stability in North America, maintaining strong trade relations with Canada is equally paramount to long-term partnership.

As the global economy navigates these potential challenges in the coming months, accurately capturing valuation changes as companies increase prices and reduce headcount will be of paramount importance.  Learn more about how Appraisal Economics can help!